The Sinaloa Federation - LCT Alliance

SITREP

Joaquin Guzman Loera (El Chapo) has a long standing relationship with MEXGOV, but he paid off primarily SEGOB and SEDENA. He had Mexican Army liaisons with him almost all of the time and Gobernacion people with him some of the time to fend off unwanted inquiries. 

Times change and politics changes. Since Enrique Pena took office, there has been a systematic purge of the old guard at PRI and the young turks have replaced them. El Chapo is now going it alone without the top cover that he's grown accustomed to. 

El Chapo and his partner, Ismael Zambada (El Mayo) have split the sheets with Cartel Nueva Generacion Jalisco and El Mencho. The Sinaloa Federation is trimming down and is getting ready to operate under a new paradigm.

The New Sinaloa Federation

As part of the Sinaloa Federation's restructure, El Chapo has joined with Los Caballeros Templarios (LCT) and is allied with key figures within Los Kaibiles de Guatemala (Guatemalan Special Forces). Thus, his strength in Southern Mexico is profound. Much of their methamphetamines and opiate products are now streaming into the marketplace (USA) by way of Canada. Chapo is proportionately as strong in Canada as he is along the US Border. The Arellano Felix Organization was folded completely into El Chapo's new Sinaloa Federation and he has a strong grip on the border from the Pacific Ocean to New Mexico.

MEXGOV Reaction

Because the rapprochement with the Sinaloa Federation has gone, MEXGOV wants to put pressure on them to crush them. 

Example of MANPAD damage to a
civilian aircraft.

El Chapo's Reaction to the MEXGOV Reaction

El Chapo has decided to up the ante. One of those moves is to provide the Sinaloa Federation with protection against MEXGOV rotorcraft and low flying aircraft. He turned to Guatemala (site of the shoot-out yesterday) to purchase Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) - surface to air missiles. He couldn't lay his hands on the latest generation of MANPAD, but the Chinese FN-6 is good enough to eliminate the threat that MEXGOV can present from the air to cartels operating in the field.

New MEXGOV Philosophy

For a very long time, the Mexican Government has been paid by drug cartels for the right to move narcotics through "plazas" as the drugs make their way to "the customer/consumer" - the USA. This resulted in unacceptable violence. Today MEXGOV plans to cut out the middle man and handle the business themselves. It brings more profit to PRI's new young turks and they can do it without encountering the problem of violence between competing cartels. Or at least that's the plan.

Cartels with MANPADS

Joaquin Guzman Loera (El Chapo) is in Guatemala today, checking out his new weapons with his allies in the Guatemalan military (los Kaibiles) and Los Caballeros Templario (LCT).

Man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS or MPADS) are shoulder launched surface to air missiles which are particularly effective against helicopters. Sources suggest that the FN-6's (Second generation shoulder launched SAM's) have been delivered recently.

Chinese made FN-6 MANPAD

The narcotics cartels in Mexico are changing as MEXGOV is changing its way of managing the narcotics supply to the United States. The old "dinosaurs" in the PRI Party have been or are are being 'castrated' and removed from power to make way for the young turks. 

los Kaibiles, armed by the US and other nations.

El Chapo found himself in a position where his SEDENA bodyguards/reps were being recalled. The same is true with his personal SEGOB detail. So he made a bold move and has built an alliance with LCT - which is being armed to the teeth. The Beltran Leyva Cartel (BLO) made a similar move a couple of years ago with Los Zetas. The alliance worked for a while. But, in fairness, Los Zetas are not the LCT, which enjoys the tacit backing of the Catholic Archdiocese. 

If the Mexican Military/Paramilitary can't fly their helicopters, it removes a key ingredient in their multi-pronged approach to take down significant narco targets. Time to break out the popcorn and see how it all unfolds.

UPDATE:

There is a rumor floating that the Guatemalan military shot Chapo in the border area just south of Chiapas this afternoon at about 1500 HRS (local time).

The Changing Drug War and Gobernación

Two days ago, Enrique Peña Nieto , Mexican president-elect, presented his vision for a cabinet change in his upcoming administration, beginning December 1. Since this will directly impact the way that Mexico manages its anti-narcotics efforts, I'm sharing it here for your consideration.

President Peña Nieto will fold the Public Security Ministry (Secretaría de Seguridad Pública, SSP) into and under the Secretary of the Interior (Secretaría de Gobernación, SEGOB). This means that in addition to Centro de Investigación y Seguridad Nacional, CISEN, the Mexican CIA, and the Paramilitary Police that will be organized under President Peña Nieto's administration, the Secretariat will be in charge of:

The Federal Police 

The Secretariat of the National System of Public Security

The Federal Prison System

The Subsecretariat of Human Rights

The Directorate of Social Communications

The Directorate General of International Affairs

The Directorate for Coordination of State and Municipal Police

The Directorate of Private Security

The General Directorate of Prisoner Transport Security

The Directorate General of Police Career and Regulations

(This is by no means a comprehensive list. I cut it short - simply for the sake of brevity.)

There have been a chain of Secretaries of the Interior under President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa
(2006–2008) : Francisco Javier Ramírez Acuña
(2008–2008) : Juan Camilo Mouriño Terrazo
(2008–2010) : Fernando Gómez–Mont Urueta
(2010–2011) : Francisco Blake Mora
(2011–2011) : Alejandro Poiré Romero

I'm not going to speculate on the revolving door at this point because, frankly, it's pointless. It's history and Mexico is moving forward.

The new focus on law enforcement and for the Department of the Interior will be kidnapping, extortion and murder. Narcotics enforcement will be "rethought".