The Sinaloa Federation - LCT Alliance

SITREP

Joaquin Guzman Loera (El Chapo) has a long standing relationship with MEXGOV, but he paid off primarily SEGOB and SEDENA. He had Mexican Army liaisons with him almost all of the time and Gobernacion people with him some of the time to fend off unwanted inquiries. 

Times change and politics changes. Since Enrique Pena took office, there has been a systematic purge of the old guard at PRI and the young turks have replaced them. El Chapo is now going it alone without the top cover that he's grown accustomed to. 

El Chapo and his partner, Ismael Zambada (El Mayo) have split the sheets with Cartel Nueva Generacion Jalisco and El Mencho. The Sinaloa Federation is trimming down and is getting ready to operate under a new paradigm.

The New Sinaloa Federation

As part of the Sinaloa Federation's restructure, El Chapo has joined with Los Caballeros Templarios (LCT) and is allied with key figures within Los Kaibiles de Guatemala (Guatemalan Special Forces). Thus, his strength in Southern Mexico is profound. Much of their methamphetamines and opiate products are now streaming into the marketplace (USA) by way of Canada. Chapo is proportionately as strong in Canada as he is along the US Border. The Arellano Felix Organization was folded completely into El Chapo's new Sinaloa Federation and he has a strong grip on the border from the Pacific Ocean to New Mexico.

MEXGOV Reaction

Because the rapprochement with the Sinaloa Federation has gone, MEXGOV wants to put pressure on them to crush them. 

Example of MANPAD damage to a
civilian aircraft.

El Chapo's Reaction to the MEXGOV Reaction

El Chapo has decided to up the ante. One of those moves is to provide the Sinaloa Federation with protection against MEXGOV rotorcraft and low flying aircraft. He turned to Guatemala (site of the shoot-out yesterday) to purchase Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) - surface to air missiles. He couldn't lay his hands on the latest generation of MANPAD, but the Chinese FN-6 is good enough to eliminate the threat that MEXGOV can present from the air to cartels operating in the field.

New MEXGOV Philosophy

For a very long time, the Mexican Government has been paid by drug cartels for the right to move narcotics through "plazas" as the drugs make their way to "the customer/consumer" - the USA. This resulted in unacceptable violence. Today MEXGOV plans to cut out the middle man and handle the business themselves. It brings more profit to PRI's new young turks and they can do it without encountering the problem of violence between competing cartels. Or at least that's the plan.

Año Nuevo de la Segunda Guerra

Federación de Sinaloa Divide

If you thought that it was all love, unicorns and rainbows within the Sinaloa Federation Narcotics Cartel, you'd be wrong.  

The biggest personal loser for the New Year's Narco War might be Gonzalo Inzunza Inzunza (Macho Prieto). His nephew, El Cholo was assassinated in Sinaloa, his brother was gunned down in Nogales and his cousin, El Celasar, was murdered in Sonorita, SON. Then again, he might not care much about the family. Gonzalo has always been a narcissist.

The Sinaloa Federation now has two factions at war with each other. And you can't tell the players without a program.

Faction #1 Leadership

Joaquin Guzman Loera (El Chapo)

Ismael Zambada Garcia (El Mayo)

Juan Jose Esparragoza Moreno (El Azul)

Allied with: 

Arellano Felix Organization, which the USGOV declared to be non-existent but just captured San Luis Rey de Colorado (across the US Border from Yuma) two days ago from Faction #2.

Los Caballeros Templarios, which used to be La Familia Michoacan, which MEXGOV declared to be non-existent but they've been marching steadily from Michoacan, through Colima and into Jalisco (headquarters of Faction #2). LCT has four thousand armed men in the field (trained to the spray and pray level), which isn't half bad for an organization that MEXGOV destroyed.

Faction #2 Leadership

Ruben Osegevera Cervantes (El Mencho)

Gonzalo Inzunza Inzunza (Macho Prieto)

They don't seem to have many allies, but they are taking some key players from the old Sinaloa Federation including most of the Manuel Torres Felix's (M-1) organization. Torres is in custody, but you will recall that he worked for Macho Prieto so his people are expected to fall into line behind this cartel.

Where are La Gran Fuerzas de Mexico (Mexican Army)? Glad you asked. They seem to be sitting on the sidelines, eating chicharones, and waiting to see who wins. It's not a bad strategy.

Yes the coffin and funeral business in Mexico is thriving.
It's clearly been a growth industry over the past six years.

The Mexican press is covering some of the major shoot outs, but they also miss some big ones. That may be because they don't have enough surviving journalists to cover it all because the war is widespread throughout Western and Northern Mexico. There was a two-hour gunfight between Faction #1 and Faction #2 yesterday in Cuidad Guzman, JAL and not a peep about it in the newspapers - not even in Zeta, and they're generally quite reliable.