Cartels with MANPADS

Joaquin Guzman Loera (El Chapo) is in Guatemala today, checking out his new weapons with his allies in the Guatemalan military (los Kaibiles) and Los Caballeros Templario (LCT).

Man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS or MPADS) are shoulder launched surface to air missiles which are particularly effective against helicopters. Sources suggest that the FN-6's (Second generation shoulder launched SAM's) have been delivered recently.

Chinese made FN-6 MANPAD

The narcotics cartels in Mexico are changing as MEXGOV is changing its way of managing the narcotics supply to the United States. The old "dinosaurs" in the PRI Party have been or are are being 'castrated' and removed from power to make way for the young turks. 

los Kaibiles, armed by the US and other nations.

El Chapo found himself in a position where his SEDENA bodyguards/reps were being recalled. The same is true with his personal SEGOB detail. So he made a bold move and has built an alliance with LCT - which is being armed to the teeth. The Beltran Leyva Cartel (BLO) made a similar move a couple of years ago with Los Zetas. The alliance worked for a while. But, in fairness, Los Zetas are not the LCT, which enjoys the tacit backing of the Catholic Archdiocese. 

If the Mexican Military/Paramilitary can't fly their helicopters, it removes a key ingredient in their multi-pronged approach to take down significant narco targets. Time to break out the popcorn and see how it all unfolds.

UPDATE:

There is a rumor floating that the Guatemalan military shot Chapo in the border area just south of Chiapas this afternoon at about 1500 HRS (local time).

BATFE - Grenade Walker

Jean Babtiste Kingery - not prosecuted by BATFE, but 

arrested in Mexico 9-7-11 and charged with supplying 

the Sinaloa Federation Drug Cartel with hand grenades 

and explosives.

Earlier today, I posted a blog about Kaibiles de Guatemala. A portion of that dealt with, "Hand grenades sold to the Guatemalan military by Israel for military applications and issued to Los Kaibiles have made their way into the hands of various drug cartels. (oops)"

I received e-mail asking whether or not that had anything to do with the now infamous case in which marginally competent BATFE Special Agents and US Attorneys let hand grenades "walk into Mexico" without informing the Mexican Government - because "it would have embarrassed the BATFE". It's comforting to note that BATFE puts its reputation ahead of the lives of Mexican citizens - and by extension US citizens. We wouldn't want to see that bent badge tarnished, would we?

Oddly enough, Jean Babtiste Kingery sold hand grenades to the Sinaloa Federation - the same cartel which received the bulk of the 2,000 + weapons in the Fast and Furious scandal. Just a coincidence.

(CBS NEWS - Sharyl Attkisson reporting) "Grenadewalker" refers to another controversial ATF case out of Phoenix. In it, Jean Baptiste Kingery allegedly smuggled parts for as many as 2,000 grenades from the US to Mexico for killer drug cartels, sometimes under the direct watch of US law enforcement. 

Sources say Kingery could have been prosecuted twice in the US for violating export control laws but that each time, prosecutors in Arizona refused to make a case. In one instance, Kingery had allegedly been caught leaving the US with 114 disassembled grenades in a tire, but the ATF agent on the case says he was ordered by the US Attorney's office to let Kingery go because the grenade parts were "novelty items" and the case "lacked jury appeal." A year and a half after Kingery was first let go, Mexican authorities raided Kingery's stash house and factory and found materials for 1,000 grenades. Kingery allegedly admitted teaching cartels how to make grenades as well as helping cartel members convert semi-automatic rifles to fully-automatic.

Gustavo Rosario Torres - the focus of an attack by
Los Zetas on May 20, 2012 in Tobasco.

That's not the hand grenade case that I referred to where Kaibiles de Guatemala were apparently involved. Gustavo Rosario Torres a former prosecutor from Tobasco, had a dispute with Los Zetas that led Los Zetas to attack on him at his home on May 20, 2012. Three hand grenades were thrown and detonated.

I have perused the MEXGOV file of this attack. The investigation file contained photographs of hand grenade pins and rings and hand grenade spoons. The spoons had Spanish writing on them.

When I reviewed the file, I told the person who gave it to me, “I hope that those grenades didn’t originate in the US.” You see, I had concerns that they may have been part of those hand grenade - bombs that Jean Babtiste Kingery smuggled into Mexico.

It turns out that the hand grenades thrown in this attack came from a lot of 200 that went missing or were stolen from the Guatemalan Army. They had been manufactured in Israel. In addition to MEXGOV officials, US BATFE examined the explosive evidence (post-blast investigation) and confirmed that. There have been other hand grenades from the same lot thrown at SEDENA troops in Chiapas in the past. 

Kaibiles de Guatemala

Every Kaibil must ascribe to this motto."If I advance, follow me. If I stop, urge me on. If I retreat, kill me."  It's not unlike the ancient Spartan statement made by mothers to their warrior sons, "Come back with your shield or on it." Recruit training includes biting the head off of a live chicken to prove your worth.

The Kaibiles are the Guatemalan Military's response to an identified need for jungle warfare commandos who focus on counter insurgency operations. They are distinguished from other Guatemalan troops by their maroon beret with blazing sword patch.

President Otto Perez Molina, a long time methamphetamine precursor dealer/importer, has announced that he will send Los Kaibiles to fight (rival) drug interests within Guatemala. Other members of Los Kaibiles have formed their own version of the Mexican Los Zetas mercenary narcotics cartel. http://youtu.be/3YOpQatySMQ In this video you will see Kaibiles crawling through the jungle wearing camouflage and red berets.

Hand grenades sold to the Guatemalan military by Israel for military applications and issued to Los Kaibiles have made their way into the hands of various drug cartels. (oops)

Propaganda: Kaibil y soldado que en tiempos de guerra, defendiste la libertad, la soberanía y la independencia de tu patria, que pasaste noches de frío, y días sin agua, que moriste en la selva, que dejaste esposa e hijos, padres y hermanos, no te sientas triste, pues cumpliste con tu deber, aunque hoy se te persiga, se te humille, y te llamen genocida, no importa que tarde o temprano se hará justicia. 

Translation: Kaibil and soldiers in wartime, defend freedom, sovereignty and independence of (Guatemala) their country, they spend cold nights and days without water, they die in the jungle, they leave wives, children, parents and siblings, and do not feel sad, as they their duty. Today they are chased and humiliated and are referred as death squads but eventually justice will be done.

I have nothing against Los Kaibiles. They fall into much the same mold as many military groups in Latin America where loyalties would seem to be divided. And those who are true believers are usually betrayed by their elected leaders.

Washington DC Beltway Experts

I don't want to be sued, so let's make it clear that the following is only MY OPINION. I could be totally wrong about everything including what you'll read below. Make up your own mind.

There are a number of firms, mostly headquartered in the Washington D. C. Beltway, which are headed by professors and other pseudo professionals, who peddle their services to the equally unknowing USGOV bureaucracy. Some of them, like Southern Pulse --

"Southern Pulse is a decentralized, field-based investigations organization focused on security, politics, energy, and business in Latin America. Founded in 2004 by investigative journalist and author Samuel Logan, Southern Pulse presents clients with reports and training courses sourced from the ground up. This organization began as a private human intelligence network in the Americas. Southern Pulse is now based in Annapolis, Maryland, and runs its free online media monitoring service from Washington, DC. Senior investigators operate from hubs in Mexico, El Salvador, Colombia, Brazil, and Chile to leverage our network, unique access, and deep understanding of the region to mitigate risk for public and private sector clients with exposure to political, security, financial, or legal risk in Latin America."

-- feel that having somebody read on-line newspapers from Latin America, which they turn into their "educated opinion", lends some sort of twisted validity to what they put out. 

Here are some of their more recent opinions regarding Guadalajara (GMA)

• Los Zetas and rivals in the Sinaloa Federation are content with a non-confrontational coexistence in the GMA.
  Completely untrue. Los Zetas have NO significant presence in Jalisco and no infrastructure to support them if they arrived. 

• There are two, tier-two groups in the GMA; each has aligned itself with a rival tier-one group. 
Mostly untrue. They (like USGOV) separate CJNG from the Sinaloa Federation, and it's not. They assert that the Milineo Cartel is affiliated with Los Zetas and it's not. I am not going to source this thing out for you, dear reader.

• There are at least three, tier-three street gangs with specific areas of operation in the GMA. 
Partly true. But the "street gangs" are run COMPLETELY as wholly owned subsidiaries of (1) The Sinaloa Federation - two separate gangs and (2) La Resistencia, which doesn't call itself the Milenio Cartel anymore. 

• The GMA has seen a violence high-water mark that will likely not been seen under current conditions. 
Untrue. They put that out right before Guadalajara broke out in near civil war in September 2012 after SEDENA grabbed El Mencho (yes, they let him go and he's back).

• The relative low value of the GMA plaza has resulted in the increased importance of rural areas. Though this is true in other areas of Mexico, it is most salient in Jalisco among all areas of our study. 
Completely untrue. And this brings me back to the central point. These researchers with "people on the ground" would not seem to be on the ground in places such as Guadalajara. Or if they are, they lack significant access to the information that they report. Do they ever speak to Ruben Osegevera Cervantes personally? Did they ever have a sit down with Nacho Coronel (before SEDENA killed him at El Chapo's request) and pick his brain over the future of his mini-empire, centered in Jalisco and Guadalajara? Do they go to El Azul's rancho outside Guadalajara and speak to the great man, himself?  Of course not. What about the rift last spring between El Mayo and El Mencho and the impact that had on Guadalajara street gangs? You never hear these 'experts' discussing nuts and bolts because they don't understand how things work among the narcos. 

I'm sure that if somebody from Southern Pulse were to respond to this blog (and I'm not holding my breath), they would say that their information comes from 'reliable sources on the ground', which would mean that they read the newspapers. (then they sell that reading service to people as evaluated intelligence)

Who owns the Mexican newspapers and who tells the newspapers what to print (for the most part)? Sadly, the narco matas and related blogs seem to have better information than the newspapers do because they can publish with a degree of anonymity.

Don't bother going to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) for answers or to the US El Paso Intelligence Center (EPIC). HIDTA gets its information from USGOV so it's no more valid than DEA. Though they are right more often than they're wrong (maybe 60/40), they lack the real ground game in Mexico that one needs to understand what's going on and more importantly, why things happen the way that they do. Relying on the (now part of Gobernacion) SSP for reliable information is folly. I don't care how well USGOV asserts that its sources are vetted.

It's all ground game. My advice to private analysis groups: Go big or go home.

USGOV doesn't want my advice.

The Livable, Lovable, Port of Veracruz

The Sinaloa Federation is a practical organization. When you intend to take over a major hub or region, it's better to simply flip the current warlord to your team than it is to try and install somebody from outside (Sinaloa) than it is to keep the figurehead in place where he is. 

It's been over a year now since SEDENA assaulted Veracruz (very effectively) and drove out Los Zetas (circa September/October 2011). Within two weeks, the Sinaloa Federation moved in and installed the formerly #3 in the Los Zetas command structure as their man in Veracruz. Sure, Rafael Acosta Croda has people keeping an eye on him, but life is good. The police leave him alone. The Army leaves him alone, the politicians tip their hats to him and all is well with the world.

Rafael Acosta Croda - and one of his wives.

The drugs move through the port of Veracruz with the occasional seizure to insure that MEXGOV authorities take credit for their vigilance. [usually somebody else's dope - rarely is a load belonging to Gonzalo Inzunza Inzunza (Macho Prieto) bagged] DEA has been wondering how all of the drugs are moving through the East Coast. This is one route. There are others.

Zeta one day, Sinaloa Federation the next. Expedient moves are necessary for survival. But sometimes it's tough for USGOV to keep up with the program.