Sunday, October 7, 2012

Ruben Osegevera Cervantes

In 2006, President Calderon started a crusade against organized crime without a clear strategy, political structure or a military force capable of fighting Mexican cartels. The objective was to reclaim the rule of law, but shortly after the end of his administration, the structures of narco remain intact. (Tag Line from a speech that will be delivered at LA HIDTA on Tuesday, November 27, 2012 - you can't attend unless you have credentials, but it will be a meaningless rehash.)

Why is Ruben Osegevera Cervantes (El Mencho) free and running his large and prosperous drug organization (sometimes referred to as the C├írteles de Jalisco e Colima Nueva Generaci├│n)? Who has an interest in keeping him in power? Why is the Mexican Army (SEDENA) and federal police (SSP) so ineffective against him personally? They took him into custody about a month ago. Why did they let him go?

Cartel roadblock in Jalisco from last month. Why were there roadblocks?
CJNG won't be shipping anymore cocaine to the United States until after the Christmas Holiday (roughly January 15, 2013) and the street price in Guadalajara has jumped $2K per kilo within the past two weeks. The price is also up in Los Angeles for those narcos who usually order enough to tide them over the month of December when the Cartels shut down for the holidays. Why is this? Any intel on this from the US side? Yes, I know the answer to all the questions that I posit, but do the intelligence professionals. And if not, why not?

CJNG will still ship methamphetemine products to the US during this period and precursor deliveries through the ports of Manzanillo and Lazlo Cardenas have picked up since the large seizures in summer weren't repeated. They will also ship heroin (grown in Gurrero, refined in Michoacan) through late December.

I really don't like the name, "CGNJ" because outside of a little posturing after El Mencho succeeded the late Ignacio (Nacho) Coronel Villarreal, it's not used in Mexico to any degree. It's all the Sinaloa Federation. It looks good on charts, but it's simply not used in Guadalajara or in El Mencho's headquarters in the twin cities of El Grullo and Autlan de Navarro. So if you're really tied to the name and if it means something to you personally, keep using it. But they don't. From here on, I'll simply refer to it as El Mencho's Organization or more appropriately, the Sinaloa Federation. They do use that term.

Does anyone think that the Mexican Government is so STUPID that they don't know what's going on in their own country? I for one do not. I've worked with them and will assure you that they have their fingers on the pulse of the drug business. Why? Because they get a cut. They always have and they always will. Why is El Mencho free and running his cartel? Because it's good for business. What happens when it's no longer good for business to have him in that job? Ask the late Nacho Coronel.

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